Research & Methodology — Aaron Trubic

The twelve-lens framework, source notes, and the case studies behind the work.

The Vektora analytical methodology runs every strategic question through twelve fixed analytical lenses: reference, constraints, competitive, cooperative, discontinuity, stabilization, information and signaling, spillover and contagion, temporal path, domestic and internal, resource and biophysical, and informal and shadow. The dimensions don't change. The wording does. Every run produces twelve parallel scenarios from the same evidence base, and the disagreements between them are the primary analytical product.

The framework addresses a recurring failure pattern. Israeli intelligence had the October 7 attack plan and called it "totally imaginative." Credit rating agencies had the 2008 loan data and stamped it AAA. Nokia's engineers saw the iPhone threat and were told their concerns weren't supported by the data. The pattern is not stupidity or bias. It is structural: a single dominant model filtering evidence faster than the evidence can challenge the model.

The full argument and case studies are in The Shape of Outcomes. The methodology is implemented in Vektora, the platform built on top of it.

This site collects supporting research, source notes, and supplementary case material. For author bio see aarontrubic.com; for advisory work see Red Label; for the writing see aarontrubic.net.